he Republic of India is considered as one of the possible emerging superpowers of the world. This potential is attributed due to several indicators, the primary ones being its demographic trends and a rapidly expanding economy. However the country suffers from many economic, social, and political problems that it must overcome before it can be considered a superpower.
Factors in favour
Geographic factors
* Location - India, the 7th largest nation by area, lies at the north of the Indian Ocean. Many Eurasian sea trade routes pass through or close to Indian territorial waters. The Himalayas in the north and north-east protect it from bitter continental cold and save the monsoon winds from escaping. The subcontinent contains necessary water resources and flat arable land to yet sustain its massive population.
* Possible future advantages of India's location -
Energy - In the future, the world is expected to enter the renewable-energy age or fusion age, if and whenever the technology becomes economically sustainable. Being a country in the sunny tropical belt, India could benefit from a renewable energy trend, as it has both high solar insolation and a big consumer base density. Also considering the costs of energy consumed for temperature control (a major factor influencing a nations energy intensity), cooling from excessive solar radiation will be economically (energetically) cheaper than heating for the lack of it.
Demographic Factors
* Big - India has the world's second largest population.[1] The government has attempted to control the population so as to avoid possible overpopulation. It has had limited success, with some South Indian states slowing down their population growth to below 1%. [2]
* Youthful - Due to its high birth rate India has a young population compared to most aging nations. It has approximately 60% of its population below the age of 30. In addition, declining fertility is beginning to reduce the youth dependency rate which may produce a demographic dividend. In the coming decades, while some of the present power nations witness a decrease in workforce, India is expected to have an increase . For example while Europe is well past its demographic window, the U.S. entered its in 1970 (lasting until 2015), China entered its in 1990 (will last until 2025), India won't enter its window until 2010 (lasting until 2050). Regionally South Asia is supposed to maintain the youngest demographic profile after Africa and Middle East, with the window extending upto 2070s. [3]
* Global Diaspora - More than 35 million Indians live across the globe [4]. Under fair opportunities, they have become socio-economically successful .
* English - The importance of English in the 21st century is a topic of debate , but the growing pool of non-native English speakers makes it the best contender for "Global language" status. Incidentally, India has the world's largest English speaking/understanding population [5]. It claims one of the largest workforce of engineers, doctors and other key professionals, all comfortable with English . It has the 2nd largest population of "fluent English" speakers, second only to the U.S., with estimates ranging from 150 to 250 million.
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Political factors
* Democratic Republicanism - India is the world's largest democratic republic, more than three times bigger than the next largest (U.S.). It has so far been successful, at least politically, especially considering its functionality in difficult ethnic composition. The fact that India is a democracy has improved its relations with other democratic nations, improving its ties with the majority of the Western World. There are some who have claimed that the United States will allow/support India's rise in order to counter China's. [6]
* Candidate for Security Council - India has been pressing for permanent membership of the Security Council (as part of the G4 nations .) It has received backing from the UK , France and Russia but without veto ability. However, China and the U.S have not been supportive of the bid. With improved Indo-US relations, the US is expected by some to reconsider its stand.
* Foreign relations - India has developed relationships with the present world powers like the EU , the U.S. , Russia, Japan and also with the African Union, the Arab World, Southeast Asia and Israel. In order to make the environment propitious for economic growth India is improving its relations with China. It has also expanded its political influence in western nations and signed a civilian nuclear deal with the United States in March 2006. It is also working to better relationships with Pakistan .
* Role in international politics - Historically, India was one of the founding members of Non-Aligned Movement, but it also was a key backer and ally of the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. It has played regional roles in South Asian affairs, e.g. its use of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in the Bangladesh Liberation War and in Sri Lanka. It took a leading initiative to improve relations between African and Asian countries. India is an active member of The Commonwealth and the WTO. The evolving economic integration politics in the West and in Asia is influencing the Indian political mood to slowly swing in favour of integration with global economy, and thus currently, India's political moves are increasingly being influenced by economic imperatives. New Delhi is being observed to slowly, cautiously, and often hesitantly, step into the unchartered role of becoming one of the two major seats of political power in Asia [1], the other being at Beijing.
* Multipolarity - A new geopolitical strategy, being debated in the West, is whether India should be trusted/helped to become an economically strong democratic citizen of the world and be used to balance the powerful but non-democratic forces, to insure a more stable world; generally speaking it is discussed in the context of adopting a policy of offshore balancing on the part of the United States. A new American strategy towards India has been indicated in George W. Bush's recent visit to the subcontinent [7].
* Economic Growth - India's current economic growth (as the world's second-fastest growing major economy) has improved its standing on the world's political stage,even though it is still a developing country, but one that is showing strong development. Many nations are moving to forge better relationship with India.
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Economic factors
* Booming Economy - The economy of India is currently the world's fourth largest in terms of real GDP (PPP) after the USA, China and Japan, and the second fastest growing major economy in the world, averaging at an annual growth rate of 7.1% [8][9]. Its record growth was in the third quarter of 2003, when it grew higher than any other emerging economy at 10.4% [10]. It has been this economic growth that has stimulated India's rise to superpower status. [11] Interestingly, estimates by the IMF shows that by 2007 ( see List of countries by GDP estimates for 2007 (PPP) ), India will be the third largest economy in the world, overtaking the japanese economy, this will be set by even higher growth rates of greater than 8%.
Primary Sector - India, growing at a mammoth 8% per year, is the world's second largest producer of food next to China. Food processing accounts for USD 69.4 billion as gross income.
Secondary Sector - India is still relatively a small player in manufacturing when compared to many world leaders. Some new trends suggest a better future.
Tertiary and Quaternary Sector - India currently has an expanding IT industry. It is considered the World's Office and is leading in the Services Industry. This is mainly due to the availability of a large pool of highly skilled, low cost, English speaking workforce
* Science/Tech - India is trying to develop more high skilled, English speaking people to fit in the future knowledge economy . India is becoming one of the world's leading producers of computer software and with mushrooming R&D centres, it is experiencing a slow but steady revolution in science and technology . A typical example of India's rising scientific endeavours - It was the 3rd nation to found a National Space Agency called ISRO, after the USSR and the U.S.. It was third Asian nation to send satellites into space after China and Japan in 1970, starting with Aryabhata in 1975 . By 2008 it plans to send an unmanned mission to the Moon . India is among the world leaders in remote sensing , a technology coming to great use, among others, to Indian fishermen & farmers. India is also trying to join international R&D projects - e.g. it has recently joined the European Galileo GPS Project and the ITER for fusion energy club . Some Indian educational and research institutions like IIT , IIM, IISc, TIFR and AIIMS are among the world's best.
* Tourism - Despite its poor tourism infrastructure, India, with its diverse and fascinating history has seen the creation of a booming tourism industry. India is a historic place with a diverse history of over 5 millennia. Foreign visitors presently spend more than US $15.4 billion annually in India [12]. Many travellers find the cultural diversity an eye-opening experience, even when the hassles of life in developing India like inefficiency, pollution, overcrowding, etc somewhat lessen the pleasure of the visit . Monuments like the Taj Mahal are among the many attractions of this land.
* Energy - To reduce the energy crisis, India is presently constructing ~ 9 civilian nuclear power reactors and several hydro-power stations [13]. Recently it also made a civilian nuclear energy deal with the US and EU . In recent years, India joined China to launch a vigorous campaign to acquire oil fields around the world and now has stake in several oil fields (in the Middle East and Russia)
* Medical Services - First World medical services at Third World prices. South Indian metros have emerged as the leading destination of medical tourism. [2]
* Mass Transit System - India is in the process of developing a modern Mass rapid transit systems to replace its exisitng system which is seen as inadequate to cater to present and future urban requirements. A modern metro rail system is already in place cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata. Work is in progress or would be commnecing shorly for developing similar mass transit system in cities of Noida, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Ahmedabad and Kochi. With growth in economy and technology, India is welcoming modernisation. The Indian rail network traverses the length and breadth of the country, covering a total length of 63,140 km (39,200 miles). It is one of the largest and busiest rail networks in the world, transporting over 5 billion passengers and over 350 million tonnes of freight annually.[14] Its operations covers twenty-seven states and three Union territories and also links the neighbouring countries of Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan. However, other public transport systems, such as buses are often not up to the standards followed in developed countries.
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Military factors
* Total Strength - The Indian Armed Forces, India's main defence organisation, consists of two main branches: the Military of India and the Indian Paramilitary Forces. The Military of India maintains the third largest active duty force in the world after the People's Republic of China and the United States, while the Indian Paramilitary Forces, over a million strong, is one of the largest paramilitary force in the world. Combined, the total armed forces of India are 2,414,700 strong, the world's second largest defence force.
Army - The Army of India, as the Indian army was called under British rule before 1947, played a crucial role in checking the advance of Imperial Japan into South Asia during World War II. Today, the Indian Army is the world's third largest army after China's People's Liberation Army and the United States Army.
Air force - The Indian Air Force is the fourth largest air force in the world [15][16]. India recently flew its first indigenously manufactured combat aircraft. It is presently developing a fifth generation aircraft known as the Sukhoi Su-47 with Russia.
Navy - The Indian Navy is the world's fifth largest navy [17]. It operates one of only two Asian aircraft carriers. It also plans to induct two other aircraft carriers by 2008. It is considered to have blue-water capabilities and has been described as "a well-balanced three-dimensional force consisting of sophisticated missile-capable warships, aircraft carriers, minesweepers, advanced submarines and the latest aircraft in its inventory". The navy has been described as one that uses state of the art technology that is indigenously manufactured. [18]
* Nuclear Weapons - India possesses nuclear weapons since WWII and the means to deliver them over long distances. However, India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) because of security concerns and India condemns the NPT as discriminatory.
* Arms Imports - India is currently one of the world's largest arms importers, spending an estimated US$16.97 billion in 2004. India has made military technology deals with the Russian Federation, the U.S., Israel and the EU. [19]
* Current major roles - The Indian Armed Forces plays a crucial role in anti-terrorist activities and maintaining law and order in the disputed Kashmir region. India has also participated in several United Nations peace-keeping missions, currently being the largest contributor to UN peace keeping force and is the largest contributor to the United Nations Democratic Fund, to which the USA, the world's only current superpower, contributes nothing.[20]
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Cultural factors
* History - India has a long history of cultural intercourse with many regions of the world. Its cultural influence has spread through the philosophy of religions like Jainism, Sikhism, Hinduism and Buddhism (particularly in East and Southeast Asia). Many foreign religions - Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Zoroastrianism, Bahá'à Faith - have found followers in India. Indian culture has spread to foreign lands through migration.
* Past Experience of having Powerful states- The Maurya , Gupta, Mughal, Vijayanagara and Chola empires provide the necessary confidence that a powerful state can be established despite having diversity.
* Cinema - India's film industry produces more feature films than any other [21]. In a year, it sold 3.6 billion tickets, more than any other film industry in the world (In comparison, Hollywood sold 2.6 billion tickets in a year) [22]. The cinemas play a major role in spreading Indian culture worldwide. However, such influence will among the Indian inhabitants.
* Unity in Diversity of world view - India has a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and multi-religious society cohabitating together. The subcontinent's long and diverse history has given it a unique eclectic culture. It is often associated with spirituality. India's diversity forces it, to either evolve strong foundations of tolerance and survive, or face break-up. The Indian public is now also accepting western influences in their society and media - and what is emerging is a confluence of its past local culture with the new western culture ("Social Globalisation"). For some futuristic social thinkers, the miscegenation of diverse ancient culture with modernity, spirituality with science/technology, Eastern with Western world-view is potentially making India a social laboratory for the evolution of futuristic global-unity consciousness. If, and only if, everything evolves right, then India could emerge as a soft super-power, by being the biggest melting pot of human ethnicities, languages, cultures, religions, ideologies & world view.
* Soft Power - India — a melting pot of human ethnicities, languages, cultures, religions, ideologies and world view — has produced much cultural influence, and has the potential to re-inforce the massive influence on world culture through modern trends such as entertainment.
So dont you think that our motherland is developing?